🃏 Baccarat Bet Analyzer
Select your bet type and stake to see detailed mathematical analysis. Baccarat has some of the lowest house edges in the casino—but not all bets are equal.
1. Select Game Type
2. Compare Bet Types
Player
Banker
Tie
3. Enter Your Bet Details
Player Bet Analysis
House Edge Comparison (lower is better for player)
📊 Complete Bet Comparison
| Bet Type | Win Probability | Payout | House Edge | EV per $100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banker (Standard) | 45.86% | 0.95:1 | 1.06% | -$1.06 |
| Player | 44.62% | 1:1 | 1.24% | -$1.24 |
| Banker (No Commission) | 45.86% | 1:1 (0.5:1 on 6) | 1.46% | -$1.46 |
| Tie (9:1) | 9.52% | 9:1 | 4.84% | -$4.84 |
| Tie (8:1) | 9.52% | 8:1 | 14.36% | -$14.36 |
Best Strategy: Always bet Banker in standard baccarat (1.06% edge). Even with 5% commission, Banker is mathematically optimal. Player is acceptable (1.24% edge). Avoid the Tie bet—its 14.36% house edge is one of the worst in the casino.
💰 Understanding Banker Commission
The 5% commission on Banker wins exists because baccarat's drawing rules give Banker a natural mathematical advantage. Without commission, the Banker bet would favor players.
| Scenario | Without Commission | With 5% Commission |
|---|---|---|
| Banker Win Probability | 45.86% | 45.86% |
| Effective Payout | 1:1 (100%) | 0.95:1 (95%) |
| Expected Value (per $100) | +$1.24 (Player Edge!) | -$1.06 (House Edge) |
| Commission on $100 Win | $0 | $5 |
Commission-Free Trap: "No commission" baccarat seems better but actually has a higher house edge (1.46%) than standard baccarat (1.06%). The rule that Banker 6 pays only 50% creates this disadvantage. Standard baccarat with commission is still the best option.
⚠️ Common Side Bets (Avoid These)
Side bets offer attractive payouts but come with significantly higher house edges. These should generally be avoided by mathematically-minded players.
🎴 Player Pair
First two Player cards match
🎴 Banker Pair
First two Banker cards match
🎴 Either Pair
Either hand has a pair
🎴 Perfect Pair
Same rank and suit pair
🐉 Dragon Bonus (Player)
Player wins by natural or margin
🐉 Dragon Bonus (Banker)
Banker wins by natural or margin
🎰 Big
Total cards dealt is 5 or 6
🎰 Small
Total cards dealt is 4
Dragon Bonus Exception: The Player Dragon Bonus (2.65% edge) is one of the few side bets with a reasonable house edge—still higher than main bets, but not catastrophically so. However, side bet house edges vary by casino, so always check the specific paytable.
Understanding Baccarat Mathematics
Baccarat is one of the simplest and lowest house edge games in any casino. The game originated in Italy and France, and its modern form—punto banco—is the version played in most casinos worldwide. According to the American Gaming Association, baccarat generates more revenue than any other table game in many casino markets, particularly in Asia.
The mathematics of baccarat are straightforward: there are only three bets (Player, Banker, Tie), and optimal strategy requires no decisions beyond choosing which to bet. The UNLV Center for Gaming Research has documented the exact probabilities based on standard 8-deck shoes, confirming the house edges shown in this calculator.
Why Banker Wins More Often
Baccarat's drawing rules give Banker a slight mathematical advantage. The key is that Banker draws last and can see Player's third card (if drawn) before deciding. This positional advantage translates to:
- Banker wins: 45.86% of hands (excluding ties)
- Player wins: 44.62% of hands (excluding ties)
- Tie: 9.52% of hands
Without commission, Banker would be a positive expected value bet for players—which is why casinos charge 5% on Banker wins. This commission ensures the casino maintains an edge while still offering one of the best bets in the house.
The Tie Bet Trap
The Tie bet attracts players with its 8:1 or 9:1 payout, but the mathematics are devastating. While ties occur about 9.52% of the time, the payout doesn't compensate for the low probability. Research published by gambling mathematics experts confirms this is objectively one of the worst bets in any casino game, as noted by the UK Gambling Commission in their guidance on game fairness.
Consider this comparison: betting $100 on Tie 1,000 times would result in approximately $14,360 in losses (at 8:1 payout). The same $100 bet on Banker 1,000 times would result in only $1,060 in expected losses—more than 13 times less costly.
Card Counting in Baccarat
Unlike blackjack, card counting provides negligible advantage in baccarat. The theoretical maximum edge from perfect card counting is approximately 0.5-1.0%, but this requires betting only when the count favors you—which might be a handful of hands per shoe. For practical purposes, no betting strategy can overcome the house edge in baccarat. For more on this topic, see our advantage play techniques guide.
Baccarat vs. Other Casino Games
How does baccarat compare to other table games? Here's a quick house edge comparison:
- Baccarat (Banker): 1.06% — One of the best bets
- Baccarat (Player): 1.24% — Still excellent
- Blackjack (basic strategy): 0.5% — Better, but requires skill
- Craps (Pass/Don't Pass): 1.36-1.41% — Comparable
- European Roulette: 2.70% — Significantly worse
- American Roulette: 5.26% — Much worse
- Slots: 2-15% — Generally worse
For a complete breakdown of game odds, see our house edge calculator and casino games guide.
Bankroll Considerations
Baccarat's low house edge means your bankroll lasts longer compared to higher-edge games. Use our session planner to estimate how long your bankroll will last, or our bankroll management guide for comprehensive strategies.
For deeper understanding of baccarat rules and strategy, see our complete baccarat rules and odds guide, which covers drawing rules, hand values, and optimal play in detail.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the house edge on Banker bet in baccarat?
The Banker bet has a house edge of 1.06% after the standard 5% commission. Before commission, Banker wins 45.86% of the time, loses 44.62%, and ties 9.52%. The 5% commission on winning Banker bets creates the casino's edge, making it one of the lowest house edge bets in any casino game.
Why does the Banker bet have a commission?
Without commission, the Banker bet would actually favor the player due to the drawing rules that give Banker a slight mathematical advantage. The casino charges a 5% commission on Banker wins to ensure they maintain a house edge. This commission reduces the effective payout from 1:1 to 0.95:1, creating the 1.06% house edge.
Is the Tie bet worth making in baccarat?
No, the Tie bet is mathematically one of the worst bets in baccarat with a house edge of 14.36% (at 8:1 payout) or 4.84% (at 9:1 payout). Despite the attractive 8:1 or 9:1 payout, ties only occur about 9.52% of the time. Over time, you'll lose far more money on Tie bets than on Player or Banker bets.
What is the best bet in baccarat?
The Banker bet is mathematically the best bet in baccarat with a house edge of only 1.06% (after 5% commission). The Player bet has a 1.24% house edge. Both are among the best bets available in any casino. Avoid the Tie bet (14.36% edge) and most side bets which typically have much higher house edges.
How does commission-free baccarat work?
Commission-free (or No Commission) baccarat eliminates the 5% commission on Banker wins but typically pays only 50% (1:2) when Banker wins with a total of 6. This rule change actually makes the Banker bet slightly worse (1.46% house edge) compared to standard baccarat (1.06% edge), despite appearing more favorable.
Do baccarat patterns or systems work?
No, baccarat patterns and betting systems cannot overcome the house edge. Each hand is mathematically independent—previous results don't influence future outcomes. Systems like following the "shoe" or betting on streaks may seem to work short-term due to variance, but over thousands of hands, the house edge prevails. Card counting in baccarat provides negligible advantage (around 0.5% at best).
How many decks are used in baccarat and does it matter?
Most baccarat games use 8 decks, though 6-deck games are also common. The number of decks has minimal impact on house edge—about 0.01% difference between 6 and 8 decks. Unlike blackjack, deck penetration doesn't significantly affect baccarat strategy or player advantage because card counting provides negligible edge.
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