Betting System Simulator

📊 Betting System Simulator

Choose a betting system, set your parameters, and run the simulation to see how the system performs over hundreds of bets. Each simulation runs multiple trials for statistical accuracy.

🎲 Martingale System

Double your bet after every loss, return to base bet after a win. The idea is that one win recovers all losses plus a small profit. However, losing streaks lead to exponentially growing bets that quickly exceed table limits or your bankroll.

Starting Bankroll ($) Your initial betting budget

Base Bet Size ($) Minimum bet per round

Table Limit ($) Maximum allowed bet

Win Probability (%) e.g., 47.37% for roulette red/black

Bets per Session Number of bets to simulate

Number of Trials Simulations for statistics

Running simulation...

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Configure your simulation and click "Run Simulation" to see results

Simulation Results

Win Rate (Sessions)

Average Profit/Loss

Bust Rate

Max Drawdown

Best Session

Worst Session

Mathematical Reality

The System Does Not Work

Despite short-term wins, the simulation shows that this betting system cannot overcome the house edge. Over enough time, all sessions trend toward the expected negative value.

📚 Why All Betting Systems Fail

Betting systems are based on the Gambler's Fallacy - the mistaken belief that past results affect future independent events. Here's why they mathematically cannot work:

The House Edge Is Constant: Every bet has the same negative expected value, regardless of bet size or previous outcomes. Doubling your bet doesn't change the odds - it just means you're losing twice as much on average. The Law of Large Numbers guarantees that results will converge to expected value over time.

The Core Mathematical Problem

Consider roulette: The probability of winning even-money bets is 18/38 (47.37%) in American roulette due to 0 and 00. This creates a 5.26% house edge on every bet. When you double your bet size:

Expected loss on $10 bet: $10 x 5.26% = -$0.526
Expected loss on $20 bet: $20 x 5.26% = -$1.052
Expected loss on $40 bet: $40 x 5.26% = -$2.104

As explained by the UNLV Center for Gaming Research, larger bets simply accelerate losses when the expected value is negative.

⚖ Comparing Betting Systems

System	Progression	Risk Level	Why It Fails
Martingale	Double after loss	Very High	Exponential bet growth hits limits quickly
Fibonacci	Follow Fibonacci sequence	High	Slower but still reaches limits
D'Alembert	+1 unit after loss, -1 after win	Medium	Linear growth still compounds losses
Paroli	Double after win (3x max)	Lower	Negative EV unchanged; small wins don't compound
Flat Betting	Same bet every time	Lowest	Still loses house edge over time

Important: While some systems have lower risk profiles (meaning slower losses), none can turn a negative expectation game into a winning one. The safest approach is flat betting - it doesn't win, but it loses at the slowest, most predictable rate. For more details, read our complete analysis of why betting systems don't work.

Understanding Betting System Mathematics

Betting systems have existed for centuries, with the Martingale dating back to 18th century France. Despite their longevity, these systems are based on a fundamental misunderstanding of probability and independent events. As documented by Khan Academy's probability courses, each spin of a roulette wheel or flip of a coin is independent of all previous outcomes.

The Martingale Illusion

The Martingale system seems foolproof at first glance: keep doubling until you win, and you'll always profit by one unit. However, this reasoning has several fatal flaws:

Table Limits: Casinos impose maximum bets specifically to prevent progression systems. After 7 losses at a $10 minimum table with a $1,280 limit, you can't double anymore.
Finite Bankroll: Doubling means betting 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128... After just 8 losses, you've bet $2,550 to win $10.
Streak Probability: While long losing streaks seem rare, they're statistically inevitable over enough time. In roulette, a 10-bet losing streak has about a 0.1% chance per 10 bets - but if you play 1,000 sets, it's virtually guaranteed.

The Psychology of System Belief

Why do people continue to believe in betting systems? Research from the National Council on Problem Gambling identifies several cognitive biases:

Confirmation Bias: We remember wins (especially dramatic comeback wins) more than losses.
Illusion of Control: Having a "system" feels like having control over random outcomes.
Gambler's Fallacy: The belief that outcomes must "even out" leads people to think a win is "due."

What About Positive Progression Systems?

Systems like Paroli (doubling after wins) are often marketed as "safer" because you're only risking winnings. While these systems do have lower variance and slower loss rates, they still cannot overcome the fundamental problem: every bet has negative expected value.

The only mathematically sound approaches to gambling are:

Don't gamble - The only guaranteed way not to lose.
Flat bet for entertainment - Accept the expected loss as the cost of entertainment.
Find genuine +EV opportunities - Card counting, poker skill edge, or sports betting value (which are rare and require significant expertise).

For more on finding mathematical value in betting, use our expected value calculator to understand when a bet actually has positive expectation. To understand how variance affects results, explore our bankroll simulator for Monte Carlo modeling.

Educational Disclaimer: This simulator is for educational purposes only to demonstrate gambling mathematics. No betting system can overcome negative expected value. Gambling involves risk and should be approached responsibly. For gambling help resources, visit BeGambleAware or see our responsible gambling page. 18+ Only.

Frequently Asked Questions

Does the Martingale betting system work?

No, the Martingale system does not work in the long run. While it can produce short-term wins, it has negative expected value and will eventually lead to catastrophic losses. The system requires doubling bets after losses, leading to exponentially growing bet sizes that eventually hit table limits or exceed your bankroll. The house edge remains constant regardless of bet size.

Why do all betting systems fail?

All betting systems fail because they cannot change the underlying mathematics of the game. The house edge (negative expected value) applies to every bet regardless of previous outcomes or bet size. No pattern of bet sizing can turn a negative expectation game into a winning proposition. The Law of Large Numbers ensures that over time, results converge to the expected value.

What is the Gambler's Fallacy?

The Gambler's Fallacy is the mistaken belief that past independent events affect future outcomes. For example, believing that after 5 red spins in roulette, black is 'due.' In reality, each spin is independent with the same probability regardless of previous results. This fallacy underlies many betting systems and is a key reason why they appear to work temporarily.

Is the Fibonacci betting system better than Martingale?

The Fibonacci system increases bets more slowly than Martingale (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8... instead of 1, 2, 4, 8...), so it takes longer to hit table limits. However, it still has the same negative expected value as any other betting system. A slower progression just means slower wins when winning and slower losses when losing - the mathematical expectation remains negative.