Blackjack Hand Calculator

Why Expected Value Matters in Blackjack

Every decision in blackjack has a mathematically correct answer, determined by expected value (EV). The EV represents your average return for each dollar wagered on a specific action. When you see that hitting 16 vs 10 has an EV of -0.540 while standing has -0.540 as well, you understand this is a break-even decision where either choice is equally bad—you're just picking your poison.

Basic strategy charts are derived from these EV calculations. As explained by the Stanford Wong's methodology and gaming mathematicians, computers can calculate the exact EV for every possible hand by examining all possible card sequences and outcomes.

How EV Is Calculated

For each decision, the calculator examines all possible outcomes:

• Stand: Calculates dealer's probability of busting or making each total (17-21), then compares to player's hand
• Hit: For each possible next card, calculates the EV of the resulting hand (which may require more hits)
• Double: Same as hit, but you receive exactly one more card and double your bet
• Split: Treats each split card as a new hand, calculates EV for each, then averages them
• Surrender: Always -0.50 (you lose half your bet by definition)

The calculations assume a standard 4-8 deck shoe where card removal effects are minimal. For single and double deck games, some decisions change slightly due to the larger impact of removed cards.

Key EV Insights

Why Double on 11 vs 6?

Doubling 11 against a dealer 6 has approximately +0.67 EV—one of the most profitable situations in blackjack. Here's why: you're likely to receive a 10-value card (giving you 21), and the dealer is likely to bust with a 6 showing (42% bust rate). Hitting would still be positive but wastes the favorable situation. As documented by the UK Gambling Commission's testing standards, these probabilities are well-established through millions of simulated hands.

When Surrender Is Correct

Surrender is correct when your expected loss from playing exceeds 50%. The classic example is 16 vs 10: both hitting and standing have about -54% EV, so surrendering at -50% saves you 4 cents per dollar. Surrender is also correct for 16 vs Ace and 15 vs 10 in most games. Many players incorrectly view surrender as "giving up," but mathematically it's the smart choice when available.

The Split Decision

Splitting pairs creates two new hands, each with its own EV. The decision to split depends on whether two separate hands perform better than the combined pair. For example, 8-8 (hard 16) is terrible against any dealer card, but two hands starting with 8 each are much more playable. However, 10-10 (hard 20) is already excellent, so splitting would turn a winning hand into two worse hands. For complete pair splitting strategy, see our blackjack basic strategy guide.

Using This Calculator Effectively

This tool is designed for education, not for use at the table. Use it to:

• Understand "why" behind basic strategy decisions you find counterintuitive
• See how close some decisions are (like 12 vs 4, where hit and stand are almost equal)
• Learn surrender by seeing which hands lose more than 50% when played
• Verify your knowledge by checking decisions you're unsure about

For practice, use our interactive blackjack trainer to drill strategy decisions until they become automatic. Understanding EV helps you internalize the logic, but at the table you should play automatically without calculating.