Buying Points in Sports Betting Explained: How to Purchase Extra Points on Spreads and Totals
Buying points is one of the most misunderstood strategies in sports betting. The ability to move point spreads and totals in your favor by paying extra juice seems appealing, but the mathematics rarely support this approach. Understanding when buying points offers genuine value - and when it destroys your edge - separates informed bettors from those who pay premium prices for minimal benefit.
According to research from the UNLV International Gaming Institute, the distribution of final margins in professional football makes certain numbers significantly more important than others. This creates specific situations where paying extra to cross these "key numbers" can be mathematically justified.
This comprehensive guide explains exactly how buying points works, the true cost of moving lines, which key numbers matter in different sports, and the mathematical framework for determining when purchasing points offers positive expected value versus when you're simply paying the sportsbook extra money.
What Is Buying Points?
Buying points means paying additional vigorish (juice) to move a point spread or total in your favor. Instead of accepting the standard line, you pay extra to get a more favorable number. The sportsbook charges you for this improved position because it increases your probability of winning.
How Point Buying Works
Consider an NFL game where the standard line is:
| Option | Line | Odds | Break-Even % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Line | Chiefs -7 | -110 | 52.38% |
| Buy ½ Point | Chiefs -6.5 | -125 | 55.56% |
| Buy 1 Point | Chiefs -6 | -140 | 58.33% |
| Buy 1½ Points | Chiefs -5.5 | -155 | 60.78% |
Each half-point costs extra juice. Moving from -110 to -120 or -125 reduces your profit when you win. The question becomes: does the improved win probability justify the reduced payout?
The "Hook" Explained
In betting terminology, the "hook" refers to the half-point in a line. Chiefs -7.5 is "seven with the hook" while Chiefs -7 is "seven flat." The hook eliminates pushes (ties) - your bet either wins or loses with no refund scenario.
Buying the hook means moving from a flat number to include the half-point (e.g., -7 to -6.5). Selling the hook means removing the half-point (e.g., +7.5 to +7), which actually pays you better odds in exchange for accepting push risk.
Standard Pricing for Buying Points
Sportsbooks use tiered pricing when selling points. The standard structure charges more for valuable numbers and less for less important numbers:
Standard Numbers (Non-Key)
For most numbers, the standard cost is approximately 10 cents per half-point:
| Points Bought | Original Odds | New Odds | Cost Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 points | -110 | -120 | 10 cents |
| 1.0 points | -110 | -130 | 20 cents |
| 1.5 points | -110 | -140 | 30 cents |
| 2.0 points | -110 | -150 | 40 cents |
Key Number Pricing (3 and 7)
Crossing key numbers costs significantly more because these numbers matter disproportionately. The American Gaming Association data shows that sportsbooks charge premium prices when bettors want to cross the most common final margins:
| Move | Typical Cost | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| -3 to -2.5 | 20-25 cents | High value - cross key number 3 |
| +2.5 to +3 | 20-25 cents | High value - land on key number 3 |
| -7 to -6.5 | 20-25 cents | High value - cross key number 7 |
| +6.5 to +7 | 20-25 cents | High value - land on key number 7 |
| -4 to -3.5 | 10-15 cents | Moderate value - approaches key number |
| -5 to -4.5 | 10 cents | Standard pricing |
NFL Key Numbers: Why 3 and 7 Dominate
Understanding key numbers is essential for evaluating point purchases. In NFL football, the scoring system creates specific margins that occur far more frequently than others. According to historical data analyzed by sports betting researchers and documented in publications from Pro-Football-Reference, certain margins dominate final score distributions:
NFL Margin Distribution
| Margin | Frequency | Scoring Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| 3 points | ~15% | Field goal difference (most common) |
| 7 points | ~9% | Touchdown + PAT difference |
| 6 points | ~5% | Touchdown (missed/no PAT) |
| 10 points | ~5% | TD + PAT + FG |
| 14 points | ~4.5% | Two touchdowns + PATs |
| 4 points | ~3.5% | FG + Safety or other combinations |
| 17 points | ~3.5% | Two TDs + FG |
| Other margins | ~2-3% each | Various combinations |
The difference is dramatic: approximately 15% of NFL games end with exactly a 3-point margin, while only about 3% end with a 4-point margin. This 5x difference explains why buying off 3 has genuine value while buying off 4 is typically a losing proposition.
The Mathematics of Buying Off 3
Consider betting on a favorite at -3. If you buy to -2.5 at 20 cents extra (moving from -110 to -130):
Value Calculation:
- Games landing on exactly 3: ~15%
- At -3 these would be pushes (refund)
- At -2.5 these become wins (half win)
- Extra cost: ~2% (from 52.38% to 56.52% break-even)
- Net benefit: 15% ÷ 2 - 4.14% = ~3.4% edge improvement
The math works because you're converting 15% of outcomes from pushes to wins for approximately 4% increased cost. This is the rare scenario where buying points makes mathematical sense.
When Buying Points Is Profitable
Based on the mathematics of expected value, there are specific situations where buying points offers genuine value:
Scenario 1: Buying Off 3 in NFL
Recommended when cost is 20 cents or less.
Moving from -3 to -2.5 (or +2.5 to +3) captures the most common final margin. The 15% frequency of 3-point games means you're improving outcomes significantly for moderate cost. If the sportsbook charges 25+ cents, the value diminishes.
Scenario 2: Buying Off 7 in NFL
Recommended when cost is 15-20 cents or less.
Moving from -7 to -6.5 (or +6.5 to +7) captures the second most common margin at ~9% frequency. The value is less than buying off 3, so you should require a lower price.
Scenario 3: Teasers as Structured Point Buying
Teaser bets are essentially structured point purchases across multiple games. A 6-point NFL teaser moving -8 to -2 and +1 to +7 crosses key numbers on both legs. Wong teasers that specifically cross 3 and 7 can offer positive expected value.
When Buying Points Destroys Value
In most situations, buying points is a losing strategy. Understanding when NOT to buy is more important than knowing when to buy:
Non-Key Numbers
Never buy off non-key numbers.
Moving from -5 to -4.5 improves your outcome by approximately 3% (the frequency of 5-point games) while costing you approximately 4% in break-even percentage. You're paying more than you receive. This applies to most numbers outside 3 and 7.
Basketball Spreads
Rarely buy points in basketball.
NBA and college basketball don't have true key numbers. The higher scoring creates more distributed margins. While 3, 5, and 7 occur slightly more often, no single margin dominates like NFL's 3-point games. Buying points in basketball is almost always negative EV.
Totals (Over/Under)
Totals betting lacks the key number concentrations of spreads. Combined scores are more evenly distributed, making any individual number less important. The cost of buying points on totals almost never justifies the benefit.
Multiple Points on Non-Key Numbers
Buying 1.5 or 2 points that don't cross key numbers compounds the problem. Each half-point costs 10+ cents, and the aggregate benefit doesn't justify aggregate cost. Exception: buying from -7.5 through -6 does cross a key number and may have value.
The Mathematics: Calculating Point Buying Value
Use the expected value calculator to analyze specific point-buying scenarios. The general framework:
Value Formula
Value = (Frequency of Number × 0.5) - Break-Even Increase
When buying off a number: pushes become wins (half the frequency value)
Example: Buying Off 3
| Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Frequency of 3-point games | 15% |
| Value gained (pushes → wins) | 15% × 0.5 = 7.5% |
| Break-even at -110 | 52.38% |
| Break-even at -130 (20 cent buy) | 56.52% |
| Cost increase | 4.14% |
| Net Value | 7.5% - 4.14% = +3.36% |
Example: Buying Off 5 (Bad Value)
| Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Frequency of 5-point games | ~3% |
| Value gained (pushes → wins) | 3% × 0.5 = 1.5% |
| Break-even at -110 | 52.38% |
| Break-even at -120 (10 cent buy) | 54.55% |
| Cost increase | 2.17% |
| Net Value | 1.5% - 2.17% = -0.67% |
Selling Points: The Reverse Strategy
Some sportsbooks allow you to "sell" points - accepting a worse line in exchange for better odds. This is the inverse of buying:
| Option | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | Chiefs -7 | -110 |
| Sell ½ Point | Chiefs -7.5 | -100 |
| Sell 1 Point | Chiefs -8 | +105 |
Selling points follows the same math in reverse. Selling OFF key numbers (moving from -7 to -7.5) can be negative EV because you're accepting push risk on the most common margins at inadequate compensation.
Buying Points vs. Alternatives
Before buying points, consider alternative approaches that might offer better value:
Line Shopping
Often you can find the line you want at another sportsbook without paying extra. If one book has Chiefs -7 and another has Chiefs -6.5 at the same -110, shop rather than buy. Use the odds comparison calculator to find the best available lines.
Waiting for Line Movement
Lines move throughout the week. If you like Chiefs -7 but want -6.5, sometimes waiting produces the desired line naturally. Of course, lines can move against you too.
Teasers
If you want to move lines by 6 points across multiple games, teaser bets may offer better mathematical structure than buying points individually. The reduced odds account for the point movements in an organized way.
Alternative Lines
Many sportsbooks offer pre-set alternative lines with adjusted odds. Chiefs -6.5 (-120) might be available as a standard alternative rather than requiring a point purchase.
Buying Points in Different Sports
NFL Football
Best opportunity for buying points.
Key numbers 3 and 7 create genuine value. Buy off these numbers when cost is reasonable. Avoid buying off non-key numbers except when crossing 3 or 7 as part of a larger purchase.
College Football
Similar key number structure to NFL.
The same 3 and 7 key numbers apply, though college football's higher variance and more blowouts reduce key number importance slightly. Point buying principles transfer from NFL.
NBA Basketball
Rarely profitable to buy points.
No dominant key numbers exist. Higher scoring creates more distributed margins. The cost of buying almost always exceeds the benefit. Avoid buying points in NBA unless receiving exceptional pricing.
College Basketball
Similar to NBA - avoid buying points.
Lower scoring than NBA doesn't create key numbers because possessions end various ways. Avoid buying points in college basketball.
MLB Baseball
Rarely applicable - runlines are 1.5.
Baseball uses fixed 1.5-run lines rather than varying spreads. Buying points on runlines exists but offers minimal value because 1-run games are common regardless of where you set the line.
NHL Hockey
Similar to MLB - pucklines are fixed at 1.5.
Hockey's 1.5-goal standard puckline doesn't create the same key number dynamics as football spreads.
Common Mistakes When Buying Points
Buying for Emotional Comfort
Many bettors buy points to feel safer about their wagers rather than for mathematical reasons. "I'd feel better at -6 than -7" isn't analysis - it's emotional decision-making that costs money long-term.
Ignoring the Break-Even Math
Every half-point purchased moves your break-even percentage higher. Use the break-even calculator to understand exactly how much more often you need to win to overcome the added juice.
Buying Multiple Non-Key Numbers
Buying from -5 to -3.5 (three half-points) costs 30+ cents and only crosses one key number (4.5 to 4). The aggregate cost far exceeds the benefit from just that one key number crossing.
Assuming Sportsbooks Price Fairly
Sportsbooks profit when bettors buy points. Their pricing is designed to extract maximum value. The fact that buying points is offered doesn't mean it's wise to use.
Not Shopping Lines First
Always check other sportsbooks before buying. You might find Chiefs -6.5 (-110) elsewhere while your book offers Chiefs -7 (-110) with a -6.5 option at -125. Shopping saves the juice entirely.
Responsible Gambling Considerations
Buying points doesn't make gambling safer - it typically makes it more expensive. The psychological appeal of "protection" can encourage larger bets or more frequent wagering, both of which increase risk.
Set strict bankroll limits that account for the increased cost when buying points. If you're buying to feel comfortable, reconsider whether the underlying bet size is appropriate for your bankroll.
Track your results separately for bets where you bought points versus standard bets. This data reveals whether point buying is actually helping your results or just costing you money for psychological comfort.
If gambling is causing financial stress or emotional distress, contact the National Council on Problem Gambling at 1-800-522-4700 or visit BeGambleAware.org for confidential support.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does buying points mean in sports betting?
Buying points means paying extra juice (vig) to move a point spread or total in your favor. Instead of betting Chiefs -7 at -110, you could buy a half-point to get Chiefs -6.5 at -120. The extra cost moves the line but reduces your profit.
How much does it cost to buy points?
Standard pricing is 10 cents per half-point on regular numbers (moving from -110 to -120). Buying off key numbers like 3 and 7 in NFL betting costs 20-25 cents per half-point due to their importance.
What are key numbers in NFL betting?
Key numbers are the most common final margins. In NFL, 3 is most important (~15% of games) due to field goals, and 7 is second (~9%) due to touchdowns with PAT. Other key numbers include 6, 10, 14, and 17.
Is buying points a good strategy?
Buying points is rarely profitable except in specific situations. Buying off key numbers 3 and 7 in NFL football can offer value. Buying non-key numbers or buying points in basketball almost never offers positive expected value.
What is the hook in sports betting?
The "hook" is the half-point in a line. -7.5 is "seven with the hook" while -7 is "seven flat." The hook eliminates pushes - bets either win or lose with no tie possible.
Should I buy points on totals?
Generally no. Totals lack the key number concentrations of spreads. Combined scores distribute more evenly, making any individual number less important. The cost usually exceeds the benefit.
What's the difference between buying points and teasers?
Buying points moves a single bet's line by paying extra juice. Teasers move multiple bets' lines together at modified odds and require winning all legs. Teasers offer structured point buying across multiple games.
Conclusion
Buying points is one of the most commonly overused strategies in sports betting. The ability to improve your position by paying extra seems appealing, but the mathematics support this approach only in specific situations involving NFL key numbers.
The key takeaways: buy off 3 and 7 in NFL football when the cost is reasonable (20 cents or less for 3, 15-20 cents for 7). Avoid buying off non-key numbers in any sport. Never buy points in basketball or on totals unless receiving extraordinary pricing. Always shop lines before buying - the best value often exists at another sportsbook without any additional cost.
Understanding when NOT to buy points is more valuable than knowing when to buy. The sportsbook profits every time you pay extra juice unnecessarily. By limiting point purchases to mathematically justified situations and shopping for the best available lines, you preserve your edge rather than paying premiums for psychological comfort.