Double Chance & Draw No Bet Calculator

This calculator helps you analyze Double Chance and Draw No Bet (DNB) markets in soccer betting. Enter the standard 1X2 odds from any match to instantly see fair odds, implied probabilities, and value comparisons for these popular "safer" betting options. Understanding these markets is essential for managing risk in soccer betting, as explained by the UK Gambling Commission's market guidance.

Understanding Double Chance and Draw No Bet Markets

Double Chance and Draw No Bet are popular betting markets in soccer that offer reduced risk compared to standard 1X2 betting. While they provide lower odds, they significantly increase your probability of winning (or at least not losing). The mathematics behind these markets is explained in academic research on optimal betting strategies published in statistical journals.

What is Double Chance?

Double Chance betting allows you to cover two of the three possible outcomes in a soccer match with a single bet. The three Double Chance options are:

• 1X: Your bet wins if the home team wins OR the match ends in a draw
• X2: Your bet wins if the match ends in a draw OR the away team wins
• 12: Your bet wins if either team wins (home OR away) - you only lose if it's a draw

What is Draw No Bet (DNB)?

Draw No Bet removes the draw from the equation entirely. You bet on either the home team or away team to win. If your team wins, you get paid. If the match ends in a draw, your stake is refunded (void bet). You only lose if the opposing team wins.

DNB is mathematically identical to Asian Handicap 0. Both markets treat draws as push results where stakes are returned. This makes DNB particularly valuable when you're confident a team won't lose but aren't sure they'll win outright.

Calculating Fair Odds

To calculate fair Double Chance odds, you first need to derive the true (no-vig) probabilities from the bookmaker's odds. The methodology involves:

1. Calculate implied probability for each outcome: P = 1 / Decimal Odds
2. Sum all probabilities to get the overround (typically 103-108%)
3. Normalize by dividing each probability by the total to remove vig
4. Add the normalized probabilities of the two outcomes you want to cover
5. Convert back to odds: Fair Odds = 1 / Combined Probability

For Draw No Bet calculations, the probability adjustment removes the draw entirely. According to UNLV's Center for Gaming Research, the formula is:

When to Use Each Market

Use Double Chance When:

• You want a guaranteed payout covering two scenarios
• You're backing a slight favorite and want draw protection
• The match features evenly matched teams where a draw is likely
• You prefer lower risk over higher potential returns
• Building accumulator bets where you need multiple legs to win

Use Draw No Bet When:

• You're confident a team won't lose but uncertain about winning
• You want better odds than Double Chance but still want draw insurance
• The match features a dominant team playing away (draws common in these situations)
• You're managing bankroll carefully and want stake protection

Comparing Value Across Markets

Bookmakers apply different margins to different markets. Sometimes the Double Chance market offers better value than the sum of two single bets would suggest. Use the Vig Calculator to compare margins across markets.

Key considerations for finding value:

• Compare calculated fair odds to offered odds: If bookmaker offers better than fair, there may be value
• Check multiple bookmakers: Use our Odds Comparison Calculator to find best prices
• Consider the margin structure: Some books apply higher margins to Double Chance than 1X2
• Look for promotional offers: Enhanced odds on Double Chance are common promotions

Mathematical Relationships

Understanding the mathematical relationships between markets helps identify pricing inefficiencies. The American Gaming Association notes that derived markets like Double Chance should be priced consistently with the underlying 1X2 market.

Key Relationships:

• 1X + 12 - 1 = X2: The probabilities of all Double Chance markets sum to 200% (each outcome covered twice)
• DNB odds ≈ 1X odds × adjustment factor: DNB Home odds are higher than 1X because draws don't count as wins
• Asian Handicap 0 = DNB: These markets are mathematically identical
• 12 odds relate to draw probability: Lower draw probability = lower 12 odds (since draws are the only losing outcome)

Practical Examples

Example 1: Backing a Strong Home Favorite

Match: Manchester City vs Southampton (Home odds: 1.25, Draw: 6.00, Away: 12.00)

• 1X Fair Odds: ~1.13 (88.5% probability)
• DNB Home Fair Odds: ~1.10 (very short but virtually guaranteed)
• Strategy: With such a heavy favorite, the 1X or DNB Home odds are extremely short. The expected value may not justify the capital tied up.

Example 2: Competitive Derby Match

Match: Liverpool vs Everton (Home odds: 1.75, Draw: 3.80, Away: 4.50)

• 1X Fair Odds: ~1.34 (covers 74.6% of outcomes)
• 12 Fair Odds: ~1.31 (covers 76.4% of outcomes)
• Strategy: In derbies, draws are common. The 1X market protects against this while backing the favorite.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

• Ignoring the vig: Always calculate fair odds; don't assume bookmaker prices are fair
• Confusing DNB with Double Chance: DNB refunds on draws; 1X/X2 wins on draws
• Overlooking accumulator rules: DNB voids affect accumulator differently than Double Chance wins
• Not comparing markets: Sometimes backing 1X2 outright offers better value than Double Chance
• Forgetting about loss chasing: Lower risk doesn't mean no risk - manage bankroll appropriately

Frequently Asked Questions

Related Tools & Articles