Moneyline Betting Explained: How to Bet on Outright Winners in Sports

Moneyline betting represents the most fundamental form of sports wagering. Unlike point spread betting where you bet on the margin of victory, or totals betting where you predict combined scores, moneyline bets ask one simple question: which team will win? This simplicity makes moneylines the ideal starting point for anyone learning to bet on sports, yet the format contains nuances that experienced bettors must understand to find value consistently.

The moneyline system expresses odds through positive and negative numbers that indicate both the likelihood of an outcome and the potential payout. According to the American Gaming Association, moneyline bets constitute a significant portion of overall sports betting handle, particularly in sports like baseball and hockey where scoring margins are unpredictable. Understanding how these odds work, how sportsbooks price them, and when to use them versus other bet types forms the foundation of informed sports betting.

How Moneyline Odds Work

Moneyline odds are expressed relative to a $100 baseline, though you can bet any amount. Negative numbers indicate favorites (the team expected to win), while positive numbers indicate underdogs (the team expected to lose). The magnitude of the number conveys the degree of favoritism or underdog status.

Understanding Favorites (Negative Odds)

When you see a team listed at -150, this means you must risk $150 to win $100 in profit. The negative sign indicates this team is favored. A -300 favorite requires a $300 bet to win $100, while a -110 favorite (a slight favorite) needs $110 to win $100. The larger the negative number, the heavier the favorite and the more you must risk relative to your potential winnings.

Understanding Underdogs (Positive Odds)

Positive moneylines show what you'd win on a $100 stake. A +150 underdog pays $150 profit on a $100 bet. A +300 underdog (significant underdog) pays $300 profit on $100, while +110 (slight underdog) pays $110. The larger the positive number, the bigger the underdog and the more you stand to win relative to your risk.

Pick'em and Even Money Lines

When teams are evenly matched, you'll see lines close to -110 on both sides (the standard vig), or occasionally "pick'em" (PK or EVEN) games listed at +100/-100. True even-money lines are rare because sportsbooks need the vigorish to profit. A -110/-110 line on both sides is the functional equivalent of a pick'em with the standard juice applied.

Calculating Moneyline Payouts

While the $100 baseline makes mental math easier, you can bet any amount. Understanding the payout formulas lets you calculate returns for any stake size.

Payout Formula for Favorites (Negative Odds)

Payout Formula for Underdogs (Positive Odds)

For quick calculations, use our probability calculator or expected value calculator which automatically convert between odds formats and calculate payouts.

Implied Probability: The Heart of Value Betting

Every moneyline carries an implied probability - the break-even win rate the odds represent. Understanding implied probability is crucial for identifying value, where your assessed probability of an outcome exceeds what the odds suggest. This concept forms the foundation of profitable betting, as explained in our variance and expected value guide.

Converting Odds to Implied Probability

Understanding the Vig Through Implied Probability

If you add the implied probabilities of both sides of a moneyline, the total will exceed 100%. This excess represents the sportsbook's vigorish (vig) or juice - their built-in profit margin. According to data from the UNLV International Gaming Institute, typical moneyline vig in major sports ranges from 3-5%.

Consider a typical NFL game priced at -150/+130. The implied probabilities are:

• Favorite (-150): 150/(150+100) = 60%
• Underdog (+130): 100/(130+100) = 43.5%
• Total: 60% + 43.5% = 103.5%
• Vig: 103.5% - 100% = 3.5%

The "true" probabilities must sum to exactly 100%, but the vig inflates both sides. You can calculate no-vig fair odds by dividing each implied probability by the total. In this example, the true favorite probability would be 60/103.5 = 58%, and the underdog would be 43.5/103.5 = 42%. Learn more about analyzing vig with our vig calculator.

Moneylines Across Different Sports

Moneyline betting behavior and strategy varies significantly across sports due to differences in scoring frequency, upset probability, and market structure.

Baseball (MLB)

Baseball is often called a "moneyline sport" because the low-scoring nature makes point spreads less useful. The standard baseball run line is -1.5 for favorites, but many bettors prefer moneylines because even dominant teams frequently win by just one run. Baseball moneylines are heavily influenced by starting pitchers - you'll see dramatically different lines depending on who's on the mound. This creates value opportunities when pitching changes occur after you've placed a bet. According to MLB statistics, road underdogs historically perform close to break-even, making baseball moneylines attractive for contrarian bettors.

Hockey (NHL)

Like baseball, hockey's low-scoring games make moneylines popular. The puck line (-1.5/+1.5) exists but carries significant juice because most games are decided by one or two goals. NHL moneylines tend to cluster in the -130 to +130 range, with true heavy favorites rare due to competitive parity and goaltender variance. Many sharp bettors focus on hockey moneylines rather than puck lines.

Football (NFL/NCAAF)

Football betting centers on point spreads, but moneylines serve specific purposes. They're useful for betting confident underdogs - if you think a +7 underdog will win outright, the +250 moneyline offers better value than the spread. Conversely, moneyline favorites in football often carry steep prices (-300 or worse) that represent poor risk/reward. Our moneyline to spread converter helps analyze when each bet type offers better value.

Basketball (NBA/NCAAB)

Basketball's high scoring makes spreads the dominant betting market, but moneylines have their place. Home underdogs getting points often provide value as moneyline bets when you expect them to win outright. Like football, heavy basketball favorites (-300+) typically offer poor moneyline value - the spread is usually the better choice for betting favorites.

Soccer

Soccer presents unique moneyline dynamics with three-way markets (Home/Draw/Away). Because ties are a common outcome (roughly 25% of matches in major leagues), backing either team requires overcoming not just the opponent but the draw possibility. This makes soccer moneylines more volatile than two-way sports. Draw No Bet markets remove this complexity but at reduced odds.

When to Bet Moneylines vs. Point Spreads

Choosing between moneylines and spreads depends on your confidence level, the odds offered, and the sport's characteristics. There's no universally superior choice - each has strategic applications.

Bet Moneylines When:

Bet Spreads When:

The Math Problem with Heavy Favorites

Betting heavy moneyline favorites (-300 and beyond) creates a mathematical challenge that many recreational bettors underestimate. Consider a -400 favorite: you're risking $400 to win $100. Even if this team wins 85% of the time, you're facing potential ruin.

Why Heavy Favorites Lose Money Long-Term

At -400, you need the team to win 80% of the time just to break even (400/500 = 80% implied probability). If they actually win 80% of games:

• Win 80 times: +$100 × 80 = +$8,000
• Lose 20 times: -$400 × 20 = -$8,000
• Net result: $0 (minus the vig)

One bad stretch erases weeks of grinding. A team that loses 4 consecutive games at -400 wipes out 16 wins worth of profit. This asymmetry explains why professional bettors, as discussed in our sharp vs square betting guide, rarely bet heavy favorites on moneylines.

Understanding these dynamics connects directly to proper bankroll management. Without disciplined staking, heavy favorite betting can rapidly deplete a bankroll during inevitable losing streaks.

Finding Value in Moneyline Markets

Value exists when your assessed probability exceeds the implied probability. If you calculate Team A has a 55% chance of winning, but the moneyline implies only 50%, that's a value bet regardless of whether Team A is favorite or underdog.

Steps to Identify Moneyline Value

1. Develop your own probability estimate: Use models, statistics, situational analysis, or expertise to assess each team's true win probability.
2. Convert the moneyline to implied probability: Use the formulas above or our probability calculator.
3. Compare your probability to the market's: If your probability exceeds the implied (plus a margin for the vig), you've found potential value.
4. Calculate expected value: EV = (Win Probability × Profit) - (Loss Probability × Stake). Positive EV bets are mathematically profitable long-term. Use our EV calculator to run these numbers.

Common Moneyline Value Scenarios

Research from the UK Gambling Commission and academic studies identify patterns where moneyline value commonly appears:

• Road underdogs in baseball: Travel schedules and public bias toward home favorites create inefficiencies.
• Back-to-back games: The second game of NHL back-to-backs or NFL short weeks often overestimates fatigue effects on favorites.
• Sharp reverse line movement: When a line moves toward a team despite public money going the other way, sharps may have identified value. See our line movement guide.
• Injury overreactions: Markets sometimes overadjust to star player injuries, creating underdog value.

Moneyline Parlays

Parlays combine multiple selections where all must win for the bet to pay. Moneyline parlays are popular because they're straightforward - just pick winners. However, the mathematics favor the sportsbook more heavily than straight bets.

How Parlay Odds Are Calculated

For American odds parlays, convert each leg to decimal odds, multiply them together, then convert back. A three-team parlay of -150, -130, and +110 underdogs:

• -150 = 1.667 decimal
• -130 = 1.769 decimal
• +110 = 2.10 decimal
• Combined: 1.667 × 1.769 × 2.10 = 6.19 decimal (+519 American)

Our parlay calculator handles these conversions automatically and shows implied vig.

The Parlay Vig Problem

Each leg of a parlay compounds the vig. If each bet carries 4% vig, a three-leg parlay has roughly 12% vig working against you. This makes parlays negative expected value even when individual legs might be +EV. Professional bettors use parlays sparingly, if at all. They're better viewed as entertainment than strategy.

Live Moneyline Betting

Live betting has transformed moneyline markets. Odds update continuously as games progress, creating opportunities and traps.

When Live Moneylines Offer Value

• Early scoring doesn't reflect game flow: A team down 7-0 in the first quarter dominating possession may offer live moneyline value.
• Weather/condition changes: Rain starting mid-game in baseball affects the remaining play differently than the early innings.
• Key player returns from injury timeout: If a star leaves temporarily but returns, odds may not fully adjust.

Live Betting Cautions

• Odds move faster than you can react: The line you see may not be the line you get.
• Algorithms price quickly: Sportsbooks have sophisticated models updating in real-time.
• Emotional betting risk: Live betting encourages impulsive decisions. See our guide on tilt in gambling.

Common Moneyline Betting Mistakes

1. Chasing Losses with Heavy Favorites

After losing, bettors often think "I'll make it back with a sure thing -350 favorite." This compounds the problem - one upset devastates the bankroll. Our loss chasing guide explains why this psychology is dangerous.

2. Ignoring the Vig

A -150/+130 line seems minor, but that 3.5% vig compounds over hundreds of bets. Line shopping across sportsbooks to find -145 instead of -150 adds significant long-term value.

3. Betting Based on Team Preference

Betting your favorite team regardless of odds is entertainment, not strategy. The market doesn't care about your fandom. See our psychology of gambling guide for more on cognitive biases.

4. Overvaluing Recent Results

A team on a 5-game winning streak isn't necessarily a good bet - the market already prices recent performance. Value comes from seeing what the market misses, not from following obvious trends.

5. Confusing Implied Probability with True Probability

The odds tell you break-even probability, not actual probability. A -200 favorite isn't "supposed to win 67% of the time" - that's just the price. The true probability might be 60%, 70%, or anything else.

Responsible Moneyline Betting

The simplicity of moneylines makes them accessible, but accessibility increases risk of problem gambling. Resources from BeGambleAware emphasize that betting should be entertainment, not income. Use our gambling budget calculator to set appropriate limits, and track your results with our session tracker.

If you find yourself betting more than you can afford, chasing losses, or experiencing negative life impacts from gambling, resources are available. Visit our responsible gambling page or contact the National Council on Problem Gambling at 1-800-522-4700.

Frequently Asked Questions