Video Poker Strategy and Odds: A Mathematical Guide to Optimal Play
Video poker stands apart from virtually every other casino game by offering players genuine strategic decisions that materially affect outcomes. Unlike slot machines where outcomes are entirely random, video poker combines poker hand rankings with optimal decision-making to create a game where skilled players can achieve return-to-player (RTP) percentages exceeding 99%, and in some cases, even surpassing 100%.
According to the American Gaming Association, video poker remains one of the most popular casino games precisely because of this skill element. Players who master optimal strategy face dramatically lower house edges than those who play by intuition. This comprehensive guide explains the mathematics behind video poker, analyzes pay tables, and provides strategy guidance for achieving maximum expected returns.
Understanding Video Poker Fundamentals
Video poker uses a standard 52-card deck (or 53 with a joker in some variants). Players receive five cards, choose which to hold, and draw replacements for discarded cards. Final hands are paid according to a fixed pay table based on standard poker hand rankings.
The Basic Game Flow
Every video poker hand follows the same sequence:
- Wager Selection: Choose 1-5 coins per hand (always bet max for optimal RTP)
- Initial Deal: Receive 5 cards from a freshly shuffled 52-card deck
- Hold Decision: Select which cards to keep (the skill element)
- Draw: Discarded cards are replaced from the remaining 47 cards
- Payout: Final hand is evaluated and paid according to the pay table
Example: Hold the pair of Jacks, discard the remaining three cards
Why Video Poker Differs from Slots
The fundamental difference between video poker and slot machines lies in player agency. In slots, outcomes are predetermined by the RNG at the moment of the spin. In video poker, the initial deal is random, but the player's hold decisions directly affect expected value. Making optimal decisions versus poor decisions can change effective RTP by several percentage points.
Pay Table Analysis: The Foundation of Expected Return
The pay table determines everything in video poker. Games with identical names can have vastly different returns based on subtle pay table differences. Understanding how to read and evaluate pay tables is the first step toward profitable play.
Jacks or Better Pay Table Comparison
Jacks or Better is the most common video poker variant and serves as an excellent example of pay table impact. The game is typically classified by its Full House and Flush payouts:
| Hand | 9/6 (Full Pay) | 8/6 | 8/5 | 7/5 | 6/5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royal Flush | 800 | 800 | 800 | 800 | 800 |
| Straight Flush | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
| Four of a Kind | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Full House | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| Flush | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Straight | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Three of a Kind | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Two Pair | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Jacks or Better | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Expected RTP | 99.54% | 98.39% | 97.30% | 96.15% | 95.00% |
Pay Table Impact Analysis
The difference between 9/6 (99.54% RTP) and 6/5 (95.00% RTP) is 4.54 percentage points. Over 1,000 hands at $5 per hand ($5,000 wagered):
- 9/6 Expected Loss: $5,000 x 0.46% = $23
- 6/5 Expected Loss: $5,000 x 5.00% = $250
Playing the wrong pay table costs over 10 times more in expected losses. Always verify the pay table before playing, as according to gaming research from the University of Nevada Las Vegas, even experienced players often fail to notice pay table differences.
The Royal Flush Bonus
Standard video poker pays 250-for-1 on a Royal Flush for bets of 1-4 coins. However, betting 5 coins (max bet) triggers a bonus payout of 800-for-1 (4,000 coins). This bonus adds approximately 1.5% to expected return.
Optimal Strategy for Jacks or Better
Optimal video poker strategy involves holding the combination of cards that maximizes expected value across all possible draws. For Jacks or Better, this requires memorizing approximately 30-40 decision rules, ordered by priority. Similar to blackjack basic strategy, these decisions are mathematically derived and represent perfect play.
Simplified Strategy Chart (9/6 Jacks or Better)
When dealt a hand, evaluate from top to bottom and hold the first matching combination:
1 Pat Hands (Made Hands)
- Royal Flush (hold all 5)
- Straight Flush (hold all 5)
- Four of a Kind (hold all 5)
- Full House (hold all 5)
- Flush (hold all 5)
- Straight (hold all 5)
2 Drawing Hands with High Expected Value
- 4 to a Royal Flush (even breaking a made flush or straight)
- Three of a Kind
- 4 to a Straight Flush
- Two Pair
3 High Pair and Strong Draws
- High Pair (Jacks or Better)
- 3 to a Royal Flush
- 4 to a Flush
- Low Pair (2s through 10s)
- 4 to an Outside Straight
4 Weaker Draws
- 3 to a Straight Flush
- 4 to an Inside Straight (4 high cards)
- Two suited high cards (J-Q, J-K, Q-K suited)
- Two unsuited high cards (prefer lower cards when choosing)
5 Last Resort Holds
- Suited 10 with high card (10-J, 10-Q, 10-K suited)
- Single high card (Jack, Queen, King, Ace)
- If nothing above applies: Discard all 5 cards
Common Mistake: Breaking a Low Pair
Many players incorrectly break a low pair to hold high cards. Example: Dealt 7-7-K-Q-3, some players keep K-Q. Mathematically, holding the pair of 7s has higher expected value (0.824 coins) than holding K-Q suited (0.599 coins) or K-Q unsuited (0.489 coins). The low pair has 11.76% chance of becoming three-of-a-kind or better.
Counterintuitive Plays
Several optimal plays contradict intuition:
- Break a Flush for 4 to a Royal: A made flush pays 6 coins, but 4 to a Royal has expected value of 18.66 coins due to the massive Royal payout potential
- Hold Low Pair over Single High Card: Pairs have better expected value due to two-pair and three-of-a-kind possibilities
- Discard All Five Sometimes: Hands like 3-5-7-9-J offsuit have no reasonable draws; fresh five cards is optimal
- Never Hold Kickers: With Three-of-a-Kind, discard both remaining cards for maximum four-of-a-kind chances
Popular Video Poker Variants
Beyond Jacks or Better, numerous video poker variants offer different pay structures, wild cards, and strategic considerations. Each requires its own optimized strategy, as detailed in resources from the Wizard of Odds.
Deuces Wild
Full-Pay Version
All 2s are wild cards. Minimum paying hand is Three of a Kind. Full-pay versions actually favor the player mathematically, though increasingly rare. Strategy is significantly more complex than Jacks or Better.
Player Advantage PossibleDouble Bonus Poker
10/7/5 Version
Enhanced payouts for Four of a Kind hands (especially four Aces). Higher variance due to reduced Two Pair payout (1:1 instead of 2:1). Requires aggressive strategy adjustments.
Player Advantage PossibleJoker Poker (Kings+)
Full-Pay Version
53-card deck with Joker as wild. Minimum paying hand is Kings or Better (not Jacks). Full-pay versions offer slight player advantage. Wild card fundamentally changes optimal strategy.
Player Advantage PossibleBonus Poker
8/5 Version
Similar to Jacks or Better but with bonus payouts for specific Four of a Kind hands. Slightly higher variance. Strategy closely mirrors JoB with minor adjustments for quad hand values.
Very Good RTPVariance and Bankroll Considerations
Understanding variance is crucial for video poker success. Even with perfect strategy and positive expected value, short-term results vary dramatically due to the influence of rare high-paying hands, particularly the Royal Flush.
Variance by Game Type
Jacks or Better
Frequent small wins (pairs). Standard deviation: ~4.4 per unit bet. Recommended minimum: 200 max bets
Bonus Poker
Similar to JoB with quad bonuses. Standard deviation: ~5.5 per unit bet. Recommended minimum: 300 max bets
Double Bonus
Reduced two-pair pay. Standard deviation: ~8.9 per unit bet. Recommended minimum: 500 max bets
Deuces Wild
Wild cards create swings. Standard deviation: ~5.1 per unit bet. Recommended minimum: 350 max bets
The Royal Flush Factor
In standard Jacks or Better, the Royal Flush occurs approximately once every 40,391 hands. This rare hand contributes about 2% to the overall RTP. Players may experience extended periods (100,000+ hands) without hitting a Royal, during which their effective RTP is roughly 97.5% rather than 99.5%.
Finding Full-Pay Machines
Full-pay video poker machines have become increasingly rare as casinos optimize profits. However, they still exist for players willing to search.
Where to Find Better Pay Tables
- Casino Locals Markets: Las Vegas locals casinos (Station Casinos, Boyd Gaming properties) traditionally offer better video poker as they compete for regular players
- Bar-Top Machines: Some casinos place better pay tables on bar-top machines to encourage drink purchases
- High-Limit Areas: $1+ denomination machines sometimes offer better pay tables than quarter machines
- Downtown Las Vegas: Properties like El Cortez historically offer player-favorable video poker
- Online Casinos: Some regulated online casinos offer full-pay games; always verify pay tables before playing
Pay Table Verification
Before inserting money, always check:
- Full House payout (9 for 9/6 Jacks or Better)
- Flush payout (6 for 9/6 Jacks or Better)
- Royal Flush max bet payout (should be 4,000 coins for 800-for-1 bonus)
Gaming regulators like the Nevada Gaming Control Board require pay tables to be displayed, but it's the player's responsibility to evaluate them before playing.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Even players aware of optimal strategy make errors that cost expected value. These mistakes often stem from psychological biases similar to those discussed in our article on the psychology of gambling.
Strategic Errors
- Holding Kickers: Never keep extra cards with three-of-a-kind or two pair
- Chasing Inside Straights: An inside straight draw (one card needed to fill the middle) has half the odds of an open-ended straight
- Overvaluing Suited Cards: Two low suited cards (e.g., 4-6 suited) have minimal value compared to unstuited high cards
- Breaking Pairs for High Cards: A low pair beats a single high card in expected value
- Playing Too Fast: Speed leads to mistakes; take time for each decision
Bankroll Errors
- Underbetting: Playing 1-4 coins sacrifices the Royal Flush bonus
- Inadequate Bankroll: Starting with 20 max bets virtually guarantees bust-out before variance normalizes
- Ignoring Pay Tables: Playing 8/5 instead of 9/6 increases house edge by over 2%
- Emotional Decisions: Changing strategy based on recent results (chasing losses, "feeling" a Royal is due)
Video Poker vs. Other Casino Games
Understanding where video poker fits in the casino landscape helps players make informed game selection decisions.
| Game | RTP (Optimal Play) | Skill Required | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Video Poker (9/6 JoB) | 99.54% | Moderate | Low-Medium |
| Video Poker (Full-Pay Deuces) | 100.76% | High | Medium |
| Blackjack (Basic Strategy) | 99.5% | Moderate | Low |
| Baccarat (Banker) | 98.94% | None | Low |
| Craps (Pass Line) | 98.59% | Low | Medium |
| Roulette (European) | 97.30% | None | Medium |
| Slots (Average) | 88-95% | None | Very High |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the best video poker game to play?
Full-pay 9/6 Jacks or Better offers 99.54% RTP with relatively simple strategy, making it ideal for beginners. Full-pay Deuces Wild (100.76% RTP) and Double Bonus Poker (100.17% RTP) offer player advantages but require more complex strategy. Always prioritize finding full-pay machines over game variety.
Can you actually win at video poker long-term?
Certain full-pay variants theoretically favor the player with perfect strategy. However, finding these machines is increasingly difficult, and even slight strategy errors eliminate the advantage. Most practical players should expect small losses over time while enjoying lower house edges than most casino games.
What does 9/6 Jacks or Better mean?
The 9/6 designation indicates Full House pays 9-for-1 and Flush pays 6-for-1. This "full-pay" version returns 99.54% with optimal strategy. Lower pay tables like 8/5 (97.30%) or 7/5 (96.15%) significantly reduce returns. Always check the pay table before playing.
Should I always bet max coins in video poker?
Yes. The Royal Flush bonus (800-for-1 at max bet vs. 250-for-1 otherwise) adds approximately 1.5% to expected return. If max bet is too expensive, switch to a lower denomination machine and bet max rather than betting less than 5 coins on a higher denomination.
How long until I hit a Royal Flush?
With perfect strategy, Royal Flush probability is approximately 1 in 40,391 hands. At 500 hands per hour, expect one Royal roughly every 80 hours of play on average. However, variance is enormous; players routinely go 100,000+ hands between Royals while others hit multiple in a single session.
Strategy Resources and Practice
Mastering video poker strategy requires practice. Several resources can help players develop optimal decision-making:
- Strategy Cards: Laminated reference cards legal to use in casinos
- Free Practice Software: Many websites offer free video poker trainers that flag suboptimal plays
- Mobile Apps: Practice apps allow strategy drilling anywhere
- Books: "Video Poker for the Intelligent Beginner" by Bob Dancer provides comprehensive strategy guidance
Video Poker Advantages
- Skill materially affects outcomes
- Among the best RTPs in the casino
- Low variance options available (Jacks or Better)
- Transparent pay tables and mathematics
- Self-paced play without dealer pressure
- Strategy cards allowed in most casinos
Video Poker Challenges
- Full-pay machines increasingly rare
- Strategy memorization required for optimal play
- Royal Flush dependency creates variance
- Fast play can amplify losses
- Easy to make costly mistakes
- Different variants require different strategies
Conclusion: The Thinking Player's Casino Game
Video poker occupies a unique position in the casino landscape, offering skilled players some of the best odds available while maintaining entertainment value through genuine decision-making. Unlike betting systems that cannot overcome house edges, video poker strategy demonstrably improves expected returns.
The keys to successful video poker play are straightforward: find full-pay machines, always bet maximum coins, learn optimal strategy for your chosen variant, and maintain adequate bankroll to weather variance. Players who follow these principles face house edges measured in fractions of a percent, a dramatic improvement over most casino games.
However, even favorable video poker is not a path to guaranteed profit. Variance ensures short-term results deviate significantly from expectation, and full-pay machines require effort to find. Video poker works best as entertainment with minimized losses rather than an income source, offering thoughtful players the satisfaction of optimal play alongside reasonable expected returns.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute gambling advice. Even full-pay video poker with perfect strategy involves variance and risk. Never gamble with money you cannot afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your life negatively, please visit our responsible gambling resources for help.